With the first quarter of 2013 now behind us, large media industry forecasters are issuing their revised guidance for the rest of the year. Yesterday, I blogged about ZenithOptimedia’s new outlook. MagnaGlobal’s new release for the U.S. is similarly optimistic with a 0.4% rise predicted for core media owners in 2013 and a 3.8% jump for 2014.
MagnaGlobal analysts typically take cyclical ad spending into account when they release forecasts. In studying the media industry outlook, these analysts say that when they exclude spending on the Olympics and political campaigns, the real increase in ad spending this year is more like 2.4% and should be 5.9% in 2014. In what is called a ‘slow but steady trajectory’ for the ad market, analysts feel confident about their projections as they take a number of factors such as Nominal Personal Consumption, GDP, Industrial Production, unemployment and consumer sentiment into account.
Activity in specific ad sectors should resemble the following this year:
- Total TV ‑2.8%
- Internet 11.5%
- Newspapers ‑6.8%
- Magazines ‑6.7%
- Radio ‑0.2%
- Out of home 3.5%
- Total Core Media 0.4%
In addition, the firm’s analysts see directory publishing revenue falling 25.7% and direct mail revenue falling 4.1%. The total advertising industry has a 0.7% projected contraction when those 2 sectors are included.
These projections underscore the important of the digital shift and the need for media owners to tap into these revenue streams. Are you experiencing faster or slower-than-anticipated growth for your media format this year?[Source: Magna Global US Advertising Update. MAGNAGLOBALUS.com. 30 Apr. 2013. Web. 7 Mar 2013]