The growth rates predicted for the ad market this year have been cut back by most agencies. However, the same agencies see a brighter outlook for both 2012 and 2013. And MagnaGlobal and ZenithOptimedia agree on which media channels have the best prospects for next year.
ZenithOptimedia analysts expect to see the U.S. ad market grow by 3.5% in both 2012 and 2013. The agency also expects the global ad market to grow 5.3% next year, following by a 5.5% jump in 2013. These numbers are slightly below previous forecasts the agency issued.
The largest component of ad spending will go to TV on a global basis. TV should command 39.8% of spending this year and rise to 40.5% by 2013. In the U.S., the TV segment will undergo some shifts. For this year, the TV market sectors will break out as follows:
- Cable +12%
- Broadcast networks (-2%)
- Syndication (-4%)
Cable will continue to be a bright spot in 2012 with a predicted 10% increase and, in 2013, this sector could jump 10.5%. Cable TV’s strength will boost the TV sector overall which should post gains as follows:
- 2011: 4%
- 2012: 8%
- 2013: 2%
Analysts at Magna aren’t quite so optimistic about advertising expenditures. They recently adjusted their projections for 2012 down from 4.8% to 2.9%. The housing market, labor market and slow personal consumption expenditures are all likely to contribute to a sluggish economy and related ad spending next year.
According to Magna analysts, TV will likely see a 7.1% increase next year while online should have an 11.6% increase. Local broadcast TV is expected to do particularly well with an estimated $2.5 billion being spent on political advertising.[Sources: Lafayette, Jon. Zenith See Ad Growth. Broadcastingcable.com. 3 Oct. 2011. Web. 17 Oct. 2011; Lafayette, Jon. Magna Sees Ad Growth Slowing 2012. Broadcastingcable.com. 11 Oct. 2011. Web. 17 Oct. 2011]