BY Kathy Crosett
The Winterberry Group has published year-end ad market data for 2025 and 2026 projections. When combined with the forecasts made by media sales managers in the most recent State of Media Sales survey, there’s optimism for the advertising outlook.
The year-end summary
The ad spend growth rate was 5.5% in 2025. Digital continued to increase its share of the ad spending pie. The online portion of the market ended at $395.7B, a 6.2% growth rate over 2024. And the $211.6B market for traditional advertising was down 0.7%. Here’s a look at the specific media formats.
Traditional
Some traditional categories saw impressive growth. For example, sponsorship (7.3%) and experiential (7.7%) both jumped — a nod to consumer desire to get out and about.
But linear TV and print magazine and newspaper all experienced double-digit declines. And direct mail volume experienced a small drop, from 63B to 61.5B pieces.
Digital
Search ($136.5B) and social ($96.5B) dominate digital spending. But the creator category grew the fastest in 2025, 20%, and now amounts to a $9.1B industry.
A note about creators
We’ve previously reported on creators, and Winterberry analysts confirmed this growing trend in their advertising outlook. Marketers want creators to develop “more unique content” with the goal of generating conversions. Meanwhile, influencers still have their place at the table in terms of expanding a brand’s reach.
The growth of AI
As consumers shift how they search, marketers will focus on securing a spot in the AI Overview spot on Google. Keyword strategies will decrease in importance.
The need for audience data
Businesses continue to spend on data. Last year, they increased spending by 4.4% to $8.6B. They want identity-spend and third-party data. For example, marketers are eager to know what influences tennis players to make purchases. With a subscription to AdMall, you can find out, and you can guide your accounts to the right media formats and messaging.
Looking ahead
Winterberry analysts anticipate a 9.4% increase in ad spending next year, bringing the market to $664.2B.
Traditional
For traditional media, the advertising outlook of $221.2B in 2026 represents a modest growth rate of 4.5%. Here’s how Winterberry analysts expect specific media formats to break out:
- Experiential $25.3B (+10.1%)
- Sponsorship $27.0B (+13.8%)
- Radio $10.3B (-0.01%)
- Print newspaper $4.0B (-12.8%)
- Print magazine $4.1B (-11.8%)
- OOH $7.6B (+0.5%)
- Linear TV $52.3B (+6.6%)
- Direct mail $36.2B (+1.0%)
The local angle
A large portion of the increase in linear TV is likely linked to the midterm election cycle. In our State of Media Sales survey, conducted jointly with BIA, 23% of media sales managers in the broadcast TV space reported being very optimistic for the political channel in 2026. Another strong category for broadcast TV sellers will be home improvement services.
Despite Winterberry’s gloomy outlook for print publications, local media sales managers see reason for optimism in a few categories. Specifically, over 20% are very optimistic about the health care services vertical.
This sentiment makes sense. The heaviest users of health services are older consumers who also read print publications. AudienceSCAN data shows that 38% of routine health care services patients are over age 65. Likewise, 36% of this audience reads the newspaper for up to an hour a day.
Digital
For digital media, 2026 will likely be another growth year with a projected 12% increase, bringing the total to $443.1B.
The anticipated 9.5% increase in search will result in spending of $149.5B.
Several digital formats are expected to achieve double-digit growth in Winterberry’s 2026 advertising outlook. These are:
- Social $110.5B (+14.6%)
- CTV $40.4B (+22%)
- Video $40.4B (+18.9%)
- Creator $11.3B (+24.2%)
The local angle
Digital media sales managers who participated in our most recent State of Media Sales survey felt most optimistic about the recruitment advertising and the home improvement services category for 2026.
The advertising market looks strong for the coming year, especially for local media sellers. When the advertising outlook indicates slowing sales in a specific category, don’t give up. Use your resources to sell to the verticals with audiences that use those media formats and you’ll close deals.
Image by Mikhail Nilov on Pexels.
