Last week STRATA’s survey on the advertising outlook pointed to optimism on the part of U.S. ad agencies. But, the latest release from Warc suggests the marketer outlook may not be so strong through year-end. Warc’s data encompasses a global viewpoint and also contains specific projections by medium.
In looking at the ad picture, Warc analysts believe spending through the rest of the year will fall about 1% from their previous projections. This means that the global spending increase for 2012 will be at 4.4% instead of 5.3%. The firm’s analysts are also feeling more cautious about ad spending for 2013 and have lowered their growth projections from 5.4% to 4.9%. In the global market, China and Russia are retaining strong economies and can expect to see double-digit increases in ad spending. For other countries, especially Italy and Spain, reductions are in order along the lines of 5.0% and 7.8%, respectively, when year over year figures are compared. In the U.S,. the Warc numbers suggest a 3.6% overall 2012 growth rate which is a 0.5% cut from earlier estimates.
Warc also provides insight into growth estimates by media format. For now, only online marketing remains strong globally with the current outlook up 0.6% over projections made earlier this year. For all of 2012, online ad spending, worldwide, should increase 14.8%.
Other in-demand formats this year, and their expected increases, include:
- Cinema 4.7%
- TV 4.6%
- Out-of-home 4.0%
Both the out-of-home and TV figures reflect a pullback of 1.3% when compared to earlier projections. Radio is expected to finish the year with a 2.4% revenue growth rate.
The laggards in 2012 will be magazines and newspapers with drops in ad revenue of 2.1% and 2.5%.
Regarding these figures, Suzy Young, Data Editor, Warc said, “Global advertising spend is holding up thanks to the Olympics, the US presidential election and rapid growth in China."[Source: Forecasters Cut AdSpend Growth Figures. Warc.com. 6 Aug. 2012. Web. 14 Aug. 2012]