Last week MagnaGlobal announced their prediction for 2013 global ad spending – an increase of 3% — an amount which was lower than what they'd initially projected. Another respected forecaster, Warc, also revised its global spending forecast down slightly for this year – to 3.4%. While MagnaGlobal envisions a slight increase in the U.S. ad market in 2013, Warc analysts are more negative and forecast a 0.4% drop.
It will come as no surprise to ad industry watchers that the big jump in spending is taking place in countries with rapidly growing economies. This is especially true for Russia (12.1%) and China (9.7%). However, Warc downgraded them, along with all other countries except for Australia and Japan in its latest forecast. The downward revisions were most severe for France and Italy where continued economic troubles linger.
Warc analysts believe that this year’s spending changes by media format will look something like this:
- Internet 13.9%
- Out-of-home 3.1%
- TV 2.5%
- Cinema 1.6%
- Radio 1.4%
- Magazines ‑4.3%
- Newspapers ‑4.6%
Both out-of-home and Internet are likely to get a larger share of ad money than was initially thought, while spending in all other formats may drop.
The news is better for 2014. Global ad spending should increase 5.4%, Warc analysts say. The firm uses a variety of sources to originate and update its forecasts, including its own team, ad agency data, and information from media monitoring companies.