The slowing economic recovery has prompted many research shops to adjust their ad spending predictions for the balance of 2011. In early July, MagnaGlobal revised its projections down from 5.6% to 5.2%, globally. ZenithOptimedia has also come out with some new numbers and emphasizes that the continued growth in ad spending during the recovery will reach pre-recession levels by the end of the year.
ZenithOptimedia is looking for a 4.2% growth rate in ad spending, globally. This figure is not significantly different from the 4.1% prediction the firm issued in April and analysts note that total spending will reach $471 billion globally. The U.S. market, which generated $151.7 billion in ad spending last year, should see $165 billion in ad spending by 2013. Overall, analysts believe that the North American market will drive about 3.1% annual growth in ad spending between 2011 and 2013.
Ad expenditures by media format will look like this in 2011:
- Newspapers $93.75 billion (20.1%)
- Magazines $43.2 billion (9.3%)
- TV $189.4 billion (40.7%)
- Radio $33 billion (7.1%)
- Cinema $2.44 billion (0.5%)
- Outdoor $31.7 billion (6.8%)
- Internet $72.2 billion (15.5%)
Note that Internet advertising is broken out into display $25.3 billion, classified $11.8 billion and paid search $35.1 billion. This category continues to be the fastest growing and both social media and online video are the key drivers. Analysts point out that local marketers are now easily able to get into the online video market with “do-it-yourself tools.” By 2013, on a global basis, online marketing will surpass newspapers to become the second highest category for ad spending. At that point, the Internet will command 18.3% of ad spending. TV will remain the top ad channel accounting for 41.4% of ad spending, globally. Growth for TV will come at the expense of newspapers and magazines.[Source: Global ad expenditure to return to pre-recession peak level this year. Zenithoptimedia.com. 13 Jul. 2011. Web. 1 Aug. 2011]