The projections being issued by major ad-buying agencies for next year vary but they all point to a slowdown. General economic conditions, globally, are being cited for the cautious outlook. The good news for next year is that online is still a bright spot in terms of growth.
GroupM believes that global ad spending will rise to $531 billion in 2013. This is a 4.5% increase, lower than the 5.3% GroupM had previously been expecting. Similarly, MagnaGlobal cut its growth forecast from 4.5% to 3.1%. And ZenithOptimedia now says it’s looking for a 4.1% rise instead of a 4.6% jump.
Most of these experts point to the continued turmoil in Europe but conditions in the U.S. are also troubling. Now that the spending associated with the political elections and the Olympics has ceased, the ‘anemic’ growth here is more obvious. In the U.S., ZenithOptimedia expects spending of $156.5 million or a 2.7% rise over this year. Specific segments are projected to perform as follows:
- Newspapers $22.9 billion (down 8%)
- Radio $17.2 billion (up 2.9%)
- Magazines $17.3 billion (down 3.3%)
- Outdoor $7.9 billion (up 5%)
- TV $63.8 billion (up 2.8%)
- Internet $36.2 billion ( up 18.1%)
- Cinema $761 million (up 5%)
For publishers that are transitioning to digital, from newspapers and magazines, the speed and success of the change are becoming more critical.[Sources: Vranica, Suzanne. Ad-Spending Outlook Dims. Online.wsj.com. 2 Dec. 2012. Web. 10 Dec. 2012; Fitzgerald, Toni. The big story of 2013. Medialifemagazine.com. 4 Dec. 2012. Web. 10 Dec. 2012]