BY Kathy Crosett
Several media spending analysts have come out with their final projections for the U.S. ad market. As the new year approaches, media sellers should consider these projections along with the opinion of media sales managers. That information was just released in the latest State of Media Sales survey. In addition, advertising themes will make a difference in the new year.
The Big Picture
Global advertising will reach a new milestone of $1T in anticipated spending next year. While globally, spending will rise 5.1%, in the U.S., the growth rate will likely be 5%. Previously, Dentsu had anticipated a 5.3% increase.
However, another forecasting agency, WPP Media, announced that it expects the U.S. ad market to grow by 7.4%. Their projection does not take political ad revenue into account.
WPP Media expects the political spending to amount to $12.3B. And much of that spending will be at the state and local level as 2026 is all about midterm elections.
With the U.S. likely capturing $431.2B of the 2025 ad market, analysts emphasize the healthy demand. The U.S. ad market has a 12.5% growth rate over last year.
The Details
WPP Media analysts also break the ad market into two broad segments:
- Commerce ad revenue: $63.474B (includes retail media and programmatic)
- Content driven: The rest of the market which includes formats such as social, TV, audio, magazines, and newspapers.
The Digital Outlook
Despite all the optimism, the ad market is changing. Media sellers must prepare for a new future. Yes, digital ad growth will likely be 6.7% next year. And digital will account for 68% of marketer spending.
But retail media will likely enjoy the biggest spending increase at 14.1%. The following digital formats will continue to show healthy growth:
- Online video 11.5%
- Social 11.4%
The Traditional Media Outlook
The traditional media selling environment will be less robust with out-of-home advertising projected to grow over 4%, and TV at 2.4%. Print is set to drop by 3%. However, the projections for those formats without the impact of political ad spending are sobering. Demand for traditional TV will continue to fall, but will be offset by strong growth in CTV, reports Madison & Wall.
Strong Verticals for 2026 Ad Spending
The tech sector, especially companies with AI-related products, will be strong, possibly growing by 10% in 2026. In addition, government and political organizations will also spend significantly more next year.
Marketers shouldn’t overlook their opportunities to target sports fans. The Winter Olympics begin in February, and the World Cup gets underway in June in the U.S.
Our research shows that nearly 16% of media sales managers feel very optimistic about political ad spending and 28% are slightly optimistic about the vertical.
Home improvement services will likely be another strong category with 70% of media sellers being very or slightly optimistic for higher revenue. And the health care services category is not far behind. Around 62% note their general optimism for more spending from physicians, clinics, hospitals, and home health care services.
U.S. Ad Market Thematic Messaging
As your accounts develop new ad campaigns, they will seek to differentiate themselves from their competitors. Dentsu recently highlighted the trends that will likely be popular next year.
- Escape — With modern life becoming increasingly stressful, consumers are looking for a break and enjoyable elements that encompass “fantasy” and “fun.” Part of the desire to escape is driven by “digital exhaustion.”
- Togetherness — Humans may be ready to connect to their social selves again. But they’ll be doing it in a healthy way. Younger consumers, especially, won’t embrace drinking but will participate in groups devoted to hobbies. You can learn more about audiences that are shifting their attention to hobbies by checking out their profile on AudienceSCAN, powered by AdMall.
The U.S. ad market will continue to be challenging next year. Your accounts will be seeking ways to save money while optimizing outcomes. But you can help them maximize ROI by using the right media format and messaging to connect with their target audience.
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