The latest 2012 ad spending forecasts are in. As usual, there’s no agreement on exactly how much ad budgets will increase this year. But, most forecasters agree on the
macro changes in the ad market – both TV and online are trending up.
ZenithOptimedia is now looking for a 4.8% increase to bring the global ad market to $489 billion in 2012. The company has revised up its growth projections for 2013 (5.3%) and 2014 (6.1%). Not surprisingly, a significant part of the growth will be linked to BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – where local economies are booming. Reasons given for this optimism include more marketing expenditures by larger firms and a stronger outlook for the countries in the European Economic Union.
Ad spending percentages by media type this year will break out as follows:
- Newspapers 18.6%
- Magazines 8.7%
- TV 40.1%
- Radio 7%
- Outdoor 6.8%
- Internet 18.2%
The way ZenithOptimedia analysts see it, the only format to gain ground between this year and next will be Internet which will account for 20.1% of global ad spending in 2012. Analysts also noted that the small cinema market, about 0.5% of the ad industry, will grow to 0.6% in 2014. For the Internet, market leaders will be display ad spending, on track to jump 47% by 2014, and paid search, which will soar 31% by that same year.
While ZenithOptimedia believes the U.S. ad market will end this year at $160 billion (which would be a 3.6% increase), Carat expects to see the domestic market come in with a 4.9% increase over last year. This is a slight downgrade from what Carat predicted last year. The domestic ad market may be growing a little slower than many industry analysts would like to see, but the numbers are moving in the right direction.[Source: Global Ad Spend Growth Forecast. Zenithoptimedia.com. Mar. 2012. Web. 28 Mar. 2012]