Marketers are spending more on national and cable TV than forecasters originally predicted for this year though the longer range outlook for the medium is a little weaker than analysts expected at the start of 2013. In addition, marketers appear to be shifting some of their digital spending from paid search into Facebook’s Promoted Posts. These trends will have a significant impact on key media companies according to a new Pivotal Research release on advertising, authored by Brian Wieser.
The overall ad market expanded by 1.7% in the 2nd quarter this year which is an improvement over the expected 1.0%. This should bring total 2013 ad spending growth to 1.8% for the year. National TV should grow by 3.1% this year and national cable will grow by 5.3%. The national digital market, owned by players such as Google and Facebook, should see a 19.2% jump this year. However, the paid search market appears to be losing some steam with only a 10.2% expected growth rate and this slowing will impact Google. Analysts believe more small businesses, in particular, are using Facebook’s Promoted Posts and cutting back on paid search. We can also suppose that as online shopping matures and consumer behavior changes, traffic is apt to flow directly to sites like Facebook and Amazon, a trend which may not benefit Google.
Going forward, the ad market should enjoy a 3% annual growth rate through 2018. On average, national and direct media should exceed that rate. The same holds true for TV and digital which “continue to satisfy marketers’ goals and meet their workflow preferences more efficiently than other alternatives.” Weiser foresees slower growth in local media advertising with that market suffering a 0.5% decline this year and zero growth next year . Local media comprises about 48% of all advertising spending.
Do you agree with Wieser's projections? If you've used paid search in the past, do you find that Promoted Posts are working more efficiently for you?