Pivotal Research Group has just released its latest U.S. ad forecast. Calling the 1st quarter of this year a ‘false dawn,’ Pivotal analysts have reduced their outlook for this year’s ad spending. Further, the conservative outlook extends through 2017.
In pulling back their numbers, Pivotal cites the weaker national TV picture. Originally pegged for 4.8% growth, the revised figure for this sector is 3.1%. National digital display is also showing slower than anticipated growth, partly because this format — think banner ads — is being eclipsed by online video. The national digital display market is likely to end 2012 with a 5.1% higher revenue figure when compared to 2011, but will fall below the previous 6.8% projection for 2012. Finally, direct online media, especially paid search, is still seeing growth but is ‘decelerating’. This trend is linked to general macroeconomic issues in the U.S. economy.
The firm projects national mass media spending, a total of $64.811 billion for this year, with sectors breaking out as follows:
- TV $40.131 (billion)
- Magazine $13.064
- Digital $8.922
- Network and Satellite Radio $1.266
- Newspapers $753 million
- Cinema $673 million
For the local mass media market, expected to end the year at $62.443 billion, spending by sector should resemble this:
- TV $19.725 (billion)
- Newspapers $18.237
- Radio $14.043
- Outdoor $5.936
- Digital $4.501
The direct advertising market, both online and traditional, will amount to $46.638 billion. When the spending on political campaigns, $2.880 billion, and the Olympics, $670 million, are added in, the bottom line increase for 2012 will be 3.1%. This level translates to a total U.S. ad market of $177.443 billion. Next year's market is expected to be essentially flat with growth of 4.1% returning in 2014.[Source: Advertising Strategy Reversing Course. Pivotal Research. August 2012. Web. 29 Aug. 2012]