Dentsu Aegis: 2018 Ad Market Revised Up

BY Kathy Crosett
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Dentsu Aegis analysts started out this year predicting a 3.3% global increase in the ad market. As we approach the midyear point, the company has revised its numbers. The global ad market will likely end the year with a 3.7% increase over last year. The growth will bring total ad spending to $613.5 billion.

Sporting events will drive higher ad spending in specific markets. To some extent, we’ve already witnessed that trend during the 2018 Winter Olympics and Paralympics. Now, the attention of sports fans and patriots is focused on the World Cup.

The U.S. fall elections in the U.S. may also be more heated than some analysts predicted. Contenders for local, state and federal positions are already spending ad money in primary contents. In addition, PACs are spending freely to influence the electorate. In total, $2.8 billion will be spent during the election cycle. TV media sellers can expect to secure a significant percentage of the spending.

The forecast for U.S. ad spending is set at a 3.4% boost over 2017. This figure is higher than the 3.2% bump initially predicted. The total will amount to $217.3 billion.

Here’s how Dentsu Aegis analysts anticipate the global changes by media format for this year and 2019 (in parens):

  • TV +1.2% (+1.1%)
  • Newspapers ‑7.5% (-7.4%)
  • Magazines ‑6.5% (-6.4%)
  • Radio (+2.0%) (+1.2%)
  • Cinema +5.9% (+5.2%)
  • Out-​of-​home +2.2% (+2.1%)
  • Digital +12.6% (+11.3%)

While digital remains the highest growth format, the rate of growth is slowing. Last year, marketers poured money into digital and drove a 15.2% increase. This year, a 12.6% boost is expected. And there will be even slower growth in 2019. However, mobile ad spending is a digital star. With an anticipated growth rate of over 20%, advertisers will spend money on in-​app mobile this year. Meanwhile, radio formats like radio, cinema and out-​of-​home hold appeal to marketers that want to connect with consumers when they are out and about.