Can You Predict Employee Turnover Before It Happens? 

Do you know the average turnover rate at U.S. businesses? Our survey data shows the turnover in the sales department is around 30%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that average turnover for all employees ranges from 13% to 23%.

Losing employees is expensive. Businesses have invested coaching and training resources in their team members. When employees leave, that is a lost cost. In addition, employers incur expenses to recruit and train new employees.

Businesses have an incentive to reduce turnover. If they can proactively identify who might want to leave, they can cut turnover and the costs associated with high turnover.

What Is Employee Turnover Prediction?

Employee turnover prediction is the process of using data to estimate which employees are more likely to leave an organization in the future. Rather than relying on guesswork, organizations analyze patterns in behavioral, performance, engagement, and workforce data to identify employees who may be at risk of leaving. For example, they may examine attendance, productivity, performance reviews, employee survey responses, job tenure, promotion history, workload, or changes in work habits. By recognizing these patterns early, managers and human resources teams can address potential concerns, improve employee satisfaction, and develop retention strategies to reduce turnover before valuable employees decide to leave.

Why Employee Turnover Is a Growing Business Challenge

Employee turnover has significant financial and operational consequences for organizations. Replacing an employee requires substantial investments in recruiting, interviewing, hiring, onboarding, and training, all of which increase labor costs. In addition to these direct expenses, organizations also face indirect costs such as lost productivity while positions remain vacant and new employees learn their roles. We’ve calculated that the average cost to replace a bad sales hire in the B2B vertical amounts to over $177,000.

Beyond the financial costs, high employee turnover can negatively affect organizational culture and customer satisfaction. When employees leave regularly, morale often declines as remaining staff may feel overworked, undervalued, or uncertain about the organization's future. This can reduce engagement and further increase the risk of additional departures. Customers may also experience inconsistent service, delays, or reduced quality as new employees become familiar with their responsibilities.

Reactive vs. Predictive Employee Retention

Traditional employee retention strategies are reactive, meaning organizations typically respond only after an employee has resigned or expressed a desire to leave. These approaches often rely on exit interviews, counteroffers, or last-minute attempts to address concerns, which are usually too late to change the employee's decision.

In contrast, modern predictive retention strategies use data and analytics to identify employees who may be at risk of leaving before they decide to resign. By detecting early warning signs, organizations can take proactive steps such as improving career development opportunities, addressing workload issues, or increasing employee engagement. Preventing avoidable turnover is more effective because it helps retain valuable talent, reduces recruitment and training costs, maintains productivity, and preserves team morale, making it a more sustainable approach to workforce management.

Why Employees Leave Their Jobs

Not every employee will stay with an organization for the long term. But a high rate of voluntary turnover is expensive. Multiple factors contribute to turnover. When organizations minimize these factors, they will improve long-term employee retention.

Poor Job Fit

When an employee does not enjoy the work they do on a daily basis, they are more likely than others to look for a new job. Their lack of enjoyment might be associated with a skills mismatch. If they don’t have the required skills, they may feel like they are struggling to keep up with their supervisor’s expectations. Similarly, if the employee has no interest in their work they’re doing, they will be more likely to leave for a new opportunity.

Lack of Career Growth

Some employees are patient. They’re willing to work in a position that is not their dream job as long as they believe something better is coming. But, if an employee senses there is no opportunity to move ahead in an organization, they will lose hope. Once they disengage, they may put together a resume and start checking out other opportunities.

Low Employee Engagement

Low employee engagement often leads to turnover. What are the signs of low employee engagement? When an employee calls in sick frequently, they may be struggling with engagement. Similarly, if the employee frequently doesn’t finish their assignments, they may be struggling to stay engaged.

Leadership and Management Issues

Poor leadership and management frequently lead to employee turnover. At least 47% of sales reps in our surveys report leaving an organization because of issues with their managers. This dissatisfaction can range from poor communication skills to playing favorites. In some cases, company leaders or managers may exhibit toxic behavior such as yelling at team members. Regardless of the problem, poor alignment between team members and managers increases turnover.

Workplace Culture Mismatch

In the current low-hire environment, job seekers will accept any offer that comes their way. They want to be paid, continue their careers and learn something new. Unfortunately, there is sometimes a mismatch between the type of culture where an employee will thrive and what exists at their new company.  The new employee may be accustomed to working alone to find new customers and close deals. If the workplace culture is more focused on the team working together to close deals, the new employee may not be able to adapt. They may end up leaving the company.

Burnout and Work-Life Imbalance

Employees also leave organizations when they feel burned out. These feelings may result from doing work they don’t enjoy. Or they may not fit well with their team.

A related issue linked to employee departures is a work-life imbalance. Employees may leave their employer when they believe they do not have enough time and energy for the personal interests as a result of being overcommitted at work.

Can Employee Turnover Really Be Predicted?

While no model can predict every resignation, organizations can identify behavioral patterns and early warning signs pointing to a possible employee departure. Recognizing these patterns is the first step in significantly improving retention efforts.

Behavioral Patterns Reveal Risk

Employees who suddenly leave early or come in late are sending a message. This is especially true of an employee who was previously highly engaged. Unexplained absences during work hours may indicate that employees are actively looking for a job and are going on interviews.

Other behavioral patterns relate to social isolation. When an employee is spending noticeably less time with team members, they may be intentionally pulling away.

Engagement Trends Matter

Employees who are about to leave will often be less engaged overall. During meetings, they may not participate as they have in the past. When an employee who previously voiced new ideas about products or process changes falls silent, they are sending a signal.

Performance Changes Can Signal Disengagement

Over time, employees may become bored with their routine tasks. This boredom leads to a higher rate of errors. These employees may also be missing deadlines, another indication of disengagement.

Predictive Analytics Improve Accuracy

Sales managers can use predictive analytics to help them determine who is at risk of leaving the organization. These tools track details of an employee’s work and mindset. When workforce data is automated, companies can use AI and other tools to track and predict which employees are demonstrating signals of low engagement. Managers can address these issues as soon as they surface.

Common Warning Signs of Potential Employee Turnover

Employers that focus on a few key initiatives should be able to reduce some of the turnover they’re experiencing. Once they identify revealing behavior on the employee’s part, they can take action before they lose the team member.

Declining Engagement

Declining engagement is an early warning sign that an employee is not committed to their work. They may not volunteer for new responsibilities. Or they may not participate actively in meetings. These team members could be bored with their work. Alternatively, they may never have been a good fit for their position.

Managers must watch team member behavior. When obvious changes surface, managers should meet with the employee to determine underlying causes. They may be able to move the team member to a job with responsibilities that offer a better match to their skills.

Reduced Productivity

Reduced output is another clear sign that an employee is not engaged with their work. If sales reps are not making the levels of calls that they agreed to, they may be discouraged that their skills aren’t effective. Managers should take the opportunity to talk with reps about declining productivity. They can offer additional coaching or training to improve skills.

Increased Absenteeism

When employees with stellar attendance records suddenly come in late or take sick days, managers should connect with them immediately. They can start by verifying that the employee does not have a significant health concern. Employees appreciate managers who show they care. Our research shows that the best sales managers are great at listening and being empathetic.

Managers should try to work with the frequently absent team member to determine why their behavior has changed. They can then suggest changes or help the team member develop a revised set of work goals to increase engagement.

Withdrawal From Team Activities

Another sign of a potential departure is changed behavior when it comes to team activities. When an employee who has always participated in the department’s escape room outings or scavenger hunts suddenly stops, managers must try to learn the reason behind the changed behavior. Inviting the employee to a lunch outside the office, where they can talk in a neutral environment, is a good first step.

Lower Motivation

Decreased motivation at work doesn’t happen all at once. Over time, managers may notice that an employee who used to ask challenging questions about workflow or new product features is much quieter. This changed behavior can indicate decreased motivation. Managers should review any behavioral assessments taken by the employee to determine whether they are well matched for their position. In addition, these assessments may indicate the best way to improve the employee’s motivation, resulting in increased engagement.

Frequent Job Searching Behaviors

Employees who are at risk of leaving a company exhibit job-searching behavior. They may start by updating their LinkedIn page. They may also reach out to industry contacts about upcoming openings. And they may come to work dressed formally and leave at midday.

These activities serve as clues to managers. Staying in touch with employees and having frequent conversations about what they would like to do next in their career shows managers care and may reduce turnover.

The Hidden Cost of Unexpected Employee Turnover

High employee turnover drives both direct and indirect costs. When managers and the HR department establish processes to identify and re-engage at risk employees, the company benefits. Here are the types of costs businesses incur as a result of excessive employee departures.

Increased Recruitment Costs

When an employee leaves, managers and the HR department must recruit a replacement. The organization incurs the direct expense of advertising the position. In some cases, they may hire an agency to find qualified candidates. The indirect costs include the time spent by HR and managers on reviewing resumes. They’ll also need to conduct interviews and connect with references regarding what candidates have done in the past.

Lost Productivity

Before an employee departs, their lack of engagement results in lost productivity. Instead of working, they may be reviewing online job postings. This behavior costs the organization money. Key sales may be lost because the team member is not engaged in closing deals.

Higher Training Expenses

After a new employee is hired, the organization trains them in the established work processes. Depending on the candidate’s specific skills, they may also require training in parts of the sales process. The more turnover an organization experiences, the higher the training expenses will be.

Lower Team Morale

A disengaged employee often impacts the rest of the team. Sales reps may be working to achieve team goals and will resent having to take on tasks that another team member has not completed. In fact, 22% of sales reps complain that their manager does not hold everyone accountable. This lack of accountability will lead other team members to reduce productivity.

Customer Experience Disruptions

Customers who are not being served by a disengaged employee can turn into at-risk accounts. When they don’t get their questions answered, they may reach out to a competitor that will offer better services. The lack of great customer service can lead to lost business.

What Data Helps Predict Employee Turnover?

Modern businesses can access a range of tools to anticipate and reduce turnover. When they use this data responsibly, they can identify at-risk employees. And they can improve the workplace environment by proactively soliciting employee input and redesigning workflows.

Behavioral Assessments

Behavior assessments, like TeamTrait^TM, present the same objective questions to each employee. The assessment results score how well the employee is matched to their job. The results also indicate the type of work environment best suited for the employee. Managers should review this data and adjust their position and work environment.

Employee Engagement Surveys

Regular employee engagement surveys reveal what team members are thinking and feeling. The survey questions might touch on the employee’s specific position, their manager and the company as a whole. Employee answers to these surveys can help managers identify who is least engaged and potentially at risk of leaving.

Performance Trends

Sales managers typically measure team member performance based on CRM activity and review metrics such as number of calls made and size and number of deals closed. This data should be available online. Managers should regularly review the data. When performance data shows a negative trend, managers should be directly engaging with the team member to identify the problem.

Manager Feedback

Managers should record notes and observations of their one-on-one meetings with their team members. They can use this information to provide consistent feedback about employee performance. Team members appreciate details about what they are doing well and where they need to improve.

Attendance Patterns

Workforce data should be automated to show details about paid time off, flex time requests and other details such as when employees arrive late or leave early. Changes in an employee’s work time patterns can signal disengagement.

Internal Mobility and Career Progression

Employees expect to move into positions that offer more responsibility, different types of work and higher pay. Workforce analytics should track how an employee moves throughout their tenure. These reports should also alert managers to employees who seem to be stalled.

Behavioral Assessments vs. Traditional Retention Metrics

Factor	Traditional HR Metrics	Behavioral Assessments
Risk Detection	Post-hire review of why employee is not performing	Pre-hire score for job fit
Job Fit Insights	Based on candidate’s word	Pre-hire score for job fit
Engagement Prediction	Based on candidate’s assurances	Pre-hire score for on-the-job behavior
Retention Planning	Reactive based on employee behavior	Proactive based on pre-hire score
Predictive Accuracy	Limited	Broad-based, linked to answers to objective questions

How Behavioral Assessments Help Reduce Employee Turnover

Understanding employees' natural workplace behaviors enables organizations to make better hiring decisions by identifying candidates whose behavioral traits align with the demands of the role, team dynamics, and organizational culture. Rather than relying solely on skills and experience, employers can assess how individuals naturally communicate, solve problems, adapt to change, and collaborate, leading to stronger person–job and person–organization fit. This reduces the likelihood of poor hiring decisions, improves employee engagement and performance, and increases job satisfaction. Over the long term, employees who are well matched to their roles are more likely to remain motivated, productive, and committed, resulting in lower turnover, reduced recruitment costs, and higher retention rates.

How TeamTrait Helps Organizations Predict Turnover Risk

Position TeamTrait as a proactive talent management solution that complements existing HR practices. Focus on education rather than promotion, explaining how behavioural insights support better hiring and retention decisions.

TeamTrait is a proactive talent management solution that complements existing HR practices. HR departments are already using workforce analytics to track which employees may be at risk of departing. These analytical systems do not explain the underlying reasons for an employee’s disengagement or dissatisfaction.

TeamTrait’s assessment results highlight each team member’s core motivations. They also score the employee’s fit with their manager and their job. When these scores are low, employee dissatisfaction increases. The organization can try to adjust the job requirements or offer training to the manager to help them more effectively communicate with their team members.

Understanding how to communicate with each employee is a critical need. TeamTrait assessment results offer tips on how managers can optimize their communication with each employee. Taking the initiative to do so emphasizes caring and empathy, which translates into higher retention numbers.

Best Practices for Reducing Employee Turnover

HR leaders and hiring managers can improve employee retention by adopting a lifecycle approach that begins before recruitment and continues throughout employment. During hiring, organizations should use behavioral assessments alongside interviews to ensure candidates are well matched to both the role and organizational culture. Regular employee surveys and stay interviews should be used to identify concerns before they lead to turnover, enabling timely interventions. Finally, HR should use workforce analytics to monitor retention trends and evaluate the effectiveness of retention strategies.

The Future of Employee Retention Is Predictive

Workforce planning is increasingly driven by AI, behavioral intelligence, and predictive analytics, enabling organizations to make evidence-based talent decisions. AI analyzes large volumes of workforce data to identify patterns in performance, engagement, and turnover risk, while behavioral intelligence provides insights into employees' natural work styles and potential. Predictive analytics helps organizations forecast future staffing needs, identify skills gaps, and anticipate employee attrition before it occurs. As a result, HR is shifting from reactive practices, such as replacing employees after they leave, to proactive talent management focused on prevention, strategic workforce planning, targeted development, and improving long-term employee retention and organizational performance.

Final Thoughts: Predicting Turnover Starts With Understanding People

While organizations cannot prevent every employee resignation, they can significantly reduce avoidable turnover by identifying retention risks early and implementing targeted interventions. Combining behavioral insights with data-driven workforce analytics enables HR leaders to recognize patterns associated with disengagement, poor job fit, and declining performance before employees decide to leave. These insights support more informed recruitment, personalized development, effective management, and timely employee support throughout the employment lifecycle. By adopting proactive retention strategies rather than reacting to turnover after it occurs, organizations can improve employee satisfaction, strengthen organizational commitment, reduce recruitment costs, and build a more stable, engaged, and high-performing workforce over the long term.

Image by Mikhail Nilov on Pexels.