BY Kathy Crosett
After predicting that the U.S. ad market would grow 3.6% in 2025, industry analyst Brian Wieser has adjusted his numbers. In a recent report, he noted that the 2025 U.S. media market size will change – specifically it will likely grow 6.0%.
What’s Impacting the U.S. Ad Market?
Wieser’s not the only one issuing ad market updates. MAGNA and WPP Media have also updated their numbers as we look ahead to the second part of the year. In general, analysts point to uncertainty in the economy as the reason behind the changes. The disruptions in global trade and deglobalization pressures are also incorporated into the midyear adjustments.
What Does WPP Media Predict?
WPP Media revised its global ad revenue projections down to 6.0% for 2025. For the U.S. media market size, WPP Media analysts expect a 5.6% growth rate of 2024 or spending of $404.7B. This number doesn’t include any political ad spending. For reference, the global ad spending is expected to reach $1.08 trillion.
WPP is also separating ad spending into four categories as follows.
Content
For the content category, which includes familiar media formats, analysts predict the following outcomes:
- TV (traditional and streaming) $162.5B (a 1% increase)
- Print (newspaper/magazine) $45.5B (a 3.1% decrease)
- Audio (podcasts and digital and terrestrial audio ($26.B (flat)
Commerce
This category connects media spending to purchase data. This includes retail media spending of $169.6B.
Intelligence
Meet the new search. WPP Media analysts are expanding their definition of search to include “search happening outside of traditional search engines.” This category includes AI-based search. In 2025, the category will likely reach $226.2B, excluding U.S. political ad spending.
Location
This category includes out-of-home and cinema advertising and will amount to $52 billion.
What is MAGNA’s Outlook?
MAGNA’s midyear update anticipates a 4.9% increase over last year’s ad spending. That level would bring global spending to $979B. For the U.S. media market size, MAGNA analysts expect a 4.6% increase or a total of $398B. Like many industry watchers, the company’s analysts believe the economy and consumer sentiment have improved since the start of the year.
Traditional media
Traditional media formats will perform as follows in the U.S.:
- National TV $46.1B (1.1% decrease, includes CTV streaming)
- Radio $12.2B (3.2% decrease)
- Publishing $15B (2% decrease)
- Out-of-Home $9.9B (4.4% increase)
- Cinema $0.7B (7.0% increase)
- Direct mail $17B (3.5% decrease)
Digital media
The digital formats will likely not experience 2025 spending decreases according to MAGNA analysts. Here is the projected breakout.
- Core search $114.5B (7.6% increase)
- Retail search $52.1B (14.3% increase)
- Social $93.7B (10.7% increase)
- Short-form video $24.2B (8.6% increase)
- Digital audio $3.4B (3.7% increase)
What Action Should Media Sellers Take?
The ad market is not as weak as analysts anticipated earlier this year. Yes, traditional media is still losing ground to digital media. But you can convince your accounts to increase their ad spending. In the coming weeks, the back-to-school season will be underway. And football season won’t be far behind.
Show your accounts the types of media formats that encourage their target audiences to take action. 42% of back-to-school shoppers took action in the past 30 days after seeing a TV ad. 22% of these shoppers went on to purchase the advertised product or service. Get more data like this with an AdMall subscription, which includes access to AudienceSCAN.
The better news for the U.S. media market size is that cyclical events return in 2026. The midterm elections will boost spending as well. And the Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup will also provide an opportunity for advertisers to capture consumer attention. The anticipated 7.6% ad market increase will yield a total of $429 billion for media owners next year.
Summary
Don’t let the turmoil in the economy and confusion over tariffs shut down your accounts. Remind them about upcoming events and help them reach their target audience. With the right mindset, you can contribute to the growth in the U.S. media market size.
