Ad Spending Forecast: What to Expect From Marketing Budgets This Year

How have ad spending projections changed since the start of the year? IAB’s research into the opinions of senior decision-makers shows an improving ad market. Specifically, IAB analysts boosted their growth expectations for the ad market from 9.5% in January to 12.3% this month. Our State of Media Sales survey found that sellers believed the political, home improvement services and health care services verticals will generate the highest ad sales growth this year.

Which media formats will experience biggest growth?

As predicted earlier this year, growth vehicles will continue to be social media and CTV, with revised projected changes for the year of 16.5% and 15.6%, respectively. On the other hand, IAB analysts see a deeper slide for traditional media. Earlier in the year, they anticipated a drop of 1.1% in traditional media sales. Now they’re eyeing a 2.3% decrease.

Madison & Wall has a slightly different take. By media format, Madison & Wall analysts see social media growing 20.8% in 2026 and search by 15.8%. Luke Stillman, managing director, expects more brand marketing will be done through influencers and content creators, not TV.

How can your accounts reach their target customers?

Marketers are willing to spend more on advertising, but they want to reach audiences who are buyers. Senior decision-makers are well aware of declining consumer sentiment across the country. Research reinforces this gloomy mood. AudienceSCAN by AdMall shows that 39% of U.S. adults report that everyday items are less affordable.

Your accounts may not want to target consumers who are seeking to save money. On the other hand, many higher-income consumers have money to spend in our K‑shaped economy.

To grow their revenue, 63% of marketers want to acquire new customers. For a meaningful impact on the bottom line, they will likely be targeting higher income consumers.

What kinds of ads are marketers looking for?

Not all advertising efforts will be promotional. The IAB reports that around 43% hope to boost brand equity. 

In addition, over 50% of brands still emphasize creator/influencer partnerships. But a growing number (53%) want demo-targeted/cohort-based ads.

The impact of AI

Marketers are lowering the cost of efforts such as creation and production. Madison & Wall indicate this shift means more money can go into media spending. 

One detail that should concern your accounts is their AI search visibility. You can help them understand their position in simulated AI searches by using the AI Search Visibility tool in AdMall. The generated data can be a starting point for discussing new ways to shape content to improve their online visibility.

How can local media sellers win in a programmatic ad buying economy?

Some of the momentum in the ad market is linked to the World Cup and Olympics activity earlier this year. And the highly contested midterm elections are bringing more advertising funds. Our partner, BIA Advisory Services, believes the 2026 local ad market will rise to $186.1B, or $176.4B excluding political.

More ad selling is happening programmatically or through tools like Google’s Performance Max. Madison & Wall analysts expect 12% of U.S. ad spending this year to happen through automated or AI campaigns. In four years, the number could rise to 27%.

It’s also important to understand that 60% of all North American ad revenue this year will be controlled by Google, Meta and Amazon. The automation provided by AI Max or Google Max is enjoyed by advertisers. But there are complaints that Google doesn’t provide enough detail about campaign outcomes.

BIA points out that mobile is the largest local media category, accounting for $45.3B.

All these data points can position your media and your expert consultative selling services in an increasingly competitive market.

What is the ad spending outlook for 2027?

It’s not too early to discuss 2027 ad spending plans with your accounts. In 2027, forecasters anticipate global ad market growth will amount to 6% versus the 9.3% for this year. Though In the U.S., WPP Media projects an 8.4% increase. 

Local media spending may be more conservative next year. BIA anticipates $185.6 billion. That figure includes a modest $1.1B political ad spending projection. Overall, their estimate anticipates a 5.2% growth rate in local ad spending.

Closing thoughts

The ad market forecasts have improved from earlier this year. And spending outlooks for next year are positive. Local media sellers can optimize their outcome by looking for top spenders, using AdMall data. They can help their accounts improve their AI search visibility with AdMall's reports. And they can continue to serve their accounts as trusted advisors.

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